OpenAI is the Netscape story all over again, and it ends badly.
Netscape revolutionized access to the web by offering the first commercial web browser.
Netscape's IPO in August 1995, which was a massive success, marked the beginning of the dot-com boom.
But Netscape was fragile: their revenue came from selling that browser and web servers.
Microsoft, which didn't need that money, eventually offered a free competitor, Internet Explorer, pre-installed on every Windows machine.
That killed Netscape.
In 1998, Netscape was acquired by AOL, and the brand would disappear a few years later.
OpenAI has the same problem: they have no other revenue source beyond selling subscriptions to their AI. Google can afford to offer an equivalent product for free.
Moreover, just like Microsoft back then, Google distributes its AI across its various services.
History, even in the tech world, repeats itself.
The competitive pressure from Google, Microsoft, and Meta -- all capable of giving away for free a service that others charge for -- puts OpenAI in a precarious position, reminiscent of Netscape's tragic fate against Microsoft.
OpenAI is on borrowed time. More and more of us are starting to think so...